Impacts of large herbivores on terrestrial ecosystems.

Large herbivores play unique ecological roles and are disproportionately imperiled by human activity. As many wild populations dwindle towards extinction, and as interest grows in restoring lost biodiversity, research on large herbivores and their ecological impacts has intensified. Yet, results are often conflicting or contingent on local conditions, and new findings have challenged conventional wisdom, making it hard to discern general principles. Here, we review what is known about the ecosystem impacts of large herbivores globally, identify key uncertainties, and suggest priorities to guide research. Many findings are generalizable across ecosystems: large herbivores consistently exert top-down control of plant demography, species composition, and biomass, thereby suppressing fires and the abundance of smaller animals. Other general patterns do not have clearly defined impacts: large herbivores respond to predation risk but the strength of trophic cascades is variable; large herbivores move vast quantities of seeds and nutrients but with poorly understood effects on vegetation and biogeochemistry. Questions of the greatest relevance for conservation and management are among the least certain, including effects on carbon storage and other ecosystem functions and the ability to predict outcomes of extinctions and reintroductions. A unifying theme is the role of body size in regulating ecological impact. Small herbivores cannot fully substitute for large ones, and large-herbivore species are not functionally redundant - losing any, especially the largest, will alter net impact, helping to explain why livestock are poor surrogates for wild species. We advocate leveraging a broad spectrum of techniques to mechanistically explain how large-herbivore traits and environmental context interactively govern the ecological impacts of these animals.

Experimental insect suppression causes loss of induced, but not constitutive, resistance in Solanum carolinense.

Spatiotemporal variation in herbivory is a major driver of intraspecific variation in plant defense. Comparatively little is known, however, about how changes in herbivory regime affect the balance of constitutive and induced resistance, which are often considered alternative defensive strategies. Here, we investigated how nearly a decade of insect herbivore suppression affected constitutive and induced resistance in horsenettle (Solanum carolinense), a widespread herbaceous perennial. We allowed replicated horsenettle populations to respond to the presence or absence of herbivores by applying insecticide to all plants in half of 16 field plots. Horsenettle density rapidly increased in response to insecticide treatment, and this effect persisted for at least 4 years after the cessation of herbivore suppression. We subsequently grew half-sibling families from seeds collected during and shortly after insecticide treatment in a common garden and found strong effects of insect suppression on induced resistance. Feeding trials in field mesocosms with false Colorado potato beetles (Leptinotarsa juncta), a common specialist herbivore, revealed that multiyear herbivore suppression drove rapid attenuation of induced resistance: offspring of plants from insect-suppression plots exhibited a near-complete loss of induced resistance to beetles, whereas those from control plots incurred ~70% less damage after experimental induction. Plants from insect-suppression plots also had ~40% greater constitutive resistance compared with those from control plots, although this difference was not statistically significant. We nonetheless detected a strong trade-off between constitutive and induced resistance across families. In contrast, the constitutive expression of trypsin inhibitors (TI), an important chemical defense trait in horsenettle, was reduced by 20% in the offspring of plants from insect-suppression plots relative to those from control plots. However, TIs were induced to an equal extent whether or not insect herbivores had been historically suppressed. Although several defense and performance traits (prickle density, TI concentration, resistance against false Colorado potato beetles and flea beetles, biomass, and seed mass) varied markedly across families, no traits exhibited significant pairwise correlations. Overall, our results indicate that, whereas the divergent responses of multiple defense traits to insect suppression led to comparatively small changes in overall constitutive resistance, they significantly reduced induced resistance against false Colorado potato beetle.

Ecological consequences of large herbivore exclusion in an African savanna: 12 years of data from the UHURU experiment.

Diverse communities of large mammalian herbivores (LMH), once widespread, are now rare. LMH exert strong direct and indirect effects on community structure and ecosystem functions, and measuring these effects is important for testing ecological theory and for understanding past, current, and future environmental change. This in turn requires long-term experimental manipulations, owing to the slow and often nonlinear responses of populations and assemblages to LMH removal. Moreover, the effects of particular species or body-size classes within diverse LMH guilds are difficult to pinpoint, and the magnitude and even direction of these effects often depends on environmental context. Since 2008, we have maintained the Ungulate Herbivory Under Rainfall Uncertainty (UHURU) experiment, a series of size-selective LMH exclosures replicated across a rainfall/productivity gradient in a semiarid Kenyan savanna. The goals of the UHURU experiment are to measure the effects of removing successively smaller size classes of LMH (mimicking the process of size-biased extirpation) and to establish how these effects are shaped by spatial and temporal variation in rainfall. The UHURU experiment comprises three LMH-exclusion treatments and an unfenced control, applied to nine randomized blocks of contiguous 1-ha plots (n = 36). The fenced treatments are MEGA (exclusion of megaherbivores, elephant and giraffe), MESO (exclusion of herbivores ≥40 kg), and TOTAL (exclusion of herbivores ≥5 kg). Each block is replicated three times at three sites across the 20-km rainfall gradient, which has fluctuated over the course of the experiment. The first 5 years of data were published previously (Ecological Archives E095-064) and have been used in numerous studies. Since that publication, we have (1) continued to collect data following the original protocols, (2) improved the taxonomic resolution and accuracy of plant and small-mammal identifications, and (3) begun collecting several new data sets. Here, we present updated and extended raw data from the first 12 years of the UHURU experiment (2008-2019). Data include daily rainfall data throughout the experiment; annual surveys of understory plant communities; annual censuses of woody-plant communities; annual measurements of individually tagged woody plants; monthly monitoring of flowering and fruiting phenology; every-other-month small-mammal mark-recapture data; and quarterly large-mammal dung surveys. There are no copyright restrictions; notification of when and how data are used is appreciated and users of UHURU data should cite this data paper when using the data.

Evolution of shade tolerance is associated with attenuation of shade avoidance and reduced phenotypic plasticity in North American milkweeds.

PREMISE: Mismatches between light conditions and light-capture strategy can reduce plant performance and prevent colonization of novel habitats. Although light-capture strategies tend to be highly conserved among closely related species, evolutionary transitions from shaded to unshaded habitats (and vice versa) occur in numerous plant lineages. METHODS: We combined phylogenetic approaches with field and greenhouse experiments to investigate evolutionary constraints on light-capture strategy in North American milkweeds (genus Asclepias) and to determine whether colonization of shaded habitats in this heliophilic clade is associated with reduced plasticity and attenuation of the shade avoidance response. RESULTS: Colonization of shaded habitats has occurred at least 10 times in this genus, including at least once in each major North American clade. Evolutionary transitions between habitats exhibit strong directional bias, with shifts from full-sun to shaded habitats occurring at least three times as often as the opposite transition. In field and greenhouse experiments, sun species responded to shade by increasing internode length, height, and specific leaf area, consistent with the shade avoidance response; paired shade species exhibited reduced plasticity overall, and only one trait (specific leaf area) responded to experimental shade. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that milkweeds colonized shaded environments multiple times using a light-capture strategy distinct from the ancestral (putatively shade avoidant) strategy, including a general attenuation of plasticity in response to variable light conditions. This pattern bolsters the notion that shade avoidance and tolerance represent divergent evolutionary strategies for maximizing performance under qualitatively different types of shade.

Large herbivores suppress liana infestation in an African savanna.

African savannas are the last stronghold of diverse large-mammal communities, and a major focus of savanna ecology is to understand how these animals affect the relative abundance of trees and grasses. However, savannas support diverse plant life-forms, and human-induced changes in large-herbivore assemblages-declining wildlife populations and their displacement by livestock-may cause unexpected shifts in plant community composition. We investigated how herbivory affects the prevalence of lianas (woody vines) and their impact on trees in an East African savanna. Although scarce (<2% of tree canopy area) and defended by toxic latex, the dominant liana, Cynanchum viminale (Apocynaceae), was eaten by 15 wild large-herbivore species and was consumed in bulk by native browsers during experimental cafeteria trials. In contrast, domesticated ungulates rarely ate lianas. When we experimentally excluded all large herbivores for periods of 8 to 17 y (simulating extirpation), liana abundance increased dramatically, with up to 75% of trees infested. Piecewise exclusion of different-sized herbivores revealed functional complementarity among size classes in suppressing lianas. Liana infestation reduced tree growth and reproduction, but herbivores quickly cleared lianas from trees after the removal of 18-y-old exclosure fences (simulating rewilding). A simple model of liana contagion showed that, without herbivores, the long-term equilibrium could be either endemic (liana-tree coexistence) or an all-liana alternative stable state. We conclude that ongoing declines of wild large-herbivore populations will disrupt the structure and functioning of many African savannas in ways that have received little attention and that may not be mitigated by replacing wildlife with livestock.

Trophic rewilding revives biotic resistance to shrub invasion.

Trophic rewilding seeks to rehabilitate degraded ecosystems by repopulating them with large animals, thereby re-establishing strong top-down interactions. Yet there are very few tests of whether such initiatives can restore ecosystem structure and functions, and on what timescales. Here we show that war-induced collapse of large-mammal populations in Mozambique's Gorongosa National Park exacerbated woody encroachment by the invasive shrub Mimosa pigra-considered one of the world's 100 worst invasive species-and that one decade of concerted trophic rewilding restored this invasion to pre-war baseline levels. Mimosa occurrence increased between 1972 and 2015, a period encompassing the near extirpation of large herbivores during the Mozambican Civil War. From 2015 to 2019, mimosa abundance declined as ungulate biomass recovered. DNA metabarcoding revealed that ruminant herbivores fed heavily on mimosa, and experimental exclosures confirmed the causal role of mammalian herbivory in containing shrub encroachment. Our results provide mechanistic evidence that trophic rewilding has rapidly revived a key ecosystem function (biotic resistance to a notorious woody invader), underscoring the potential for restoring ecological health in degraded protected areas.

Predator-induced collapse of niche structure and species coexistence.

Biological invasions are both a pressing environmental challenge and an opportunity to investigate fundamental ecological processes, such as the role of top predators in regulating biodiversity and food-web structure. In whole-ecosystem manipulations of small Caribbean islands on which brown anole lizards (Anolis sagrei) were the native top predator, we experimentally staged invasions by competitors (green anoles, Anolis smaragdinus) and/or new top predators (curly-tailed lizards, Leiocephalus carinatus). We show that curly-tailed lizards destabilized the coexistence of competing prey species, contrary to the classic idea of keystone predation. Fear-driven avoidance of predators collapsed the spatial and dietary niche structure that otherwise stabilized coexistence, which intensified interspecific competition within predator-free refuges and contributed to the extinction of green-anole populations on two islands. Moreover, whereas adding either green anoles or curly-tailed lizards lengthened food chains on the islands, adding both species reversed this effect-in part because the apex predators were trophic omnivores. Our results underscore the importance of top-down control in ecological communities, but show that its outcomes depend on prey behaviour, spatial structure, and omnivory. Diversity-enhancing effects of top predators cannot be assumed, and non-consumptive effects of predation risk may be a widespread constraint on species coexistence.

Good neighbors make good defenses: associational refuges reduce defense investment in African savanna plants.

Intraspecific variation in plant defense phenotype is common and has wide-ranging ecological consequences. Yet prevailing theories of plant defense allocation, which primarily account for interspecific differences in defense phenotype, often fail to predict intraspecific patterns. Furthermore, although individual variation in defense phenotype is often attributed to ecological interactions, few general mechanisms have been proposed to explain the ubiquity of variable defense phenotype within species. Here, we show experimentally that associational refuges and induced resistance interact to create predictable intraspecific variation in defense phenotype in African savanna plants. Physically defended species from four families (Acanthaceae, Asparagaceae, Cactaceae, and Solanaceae) growing in close association with spinescent Acacia trees had 39-78% fewer spines and thorns than did isolated conspecifics. For a subset of these species, we used a series of manipulative experiments to show that this variability is maintained primarily by a reduction in induced responses among individuals that seldom experience mammalian herbivory, whether due to association with Acacia trees or to experimental herbivore exclusion. Unassociated plants incurred 4- to 16-fold more browsing damage than did associated individuals and increased spine density by 16-38% within one month following simulated browsing. In contrast, experimental clipping induced no net change in spine density among plants growing beneath Acacia canopies or inside long-term herbivore exclosures. Associated and unassociated individuals produced similar numbers of flowers and seeds, but seedling recruitment and survival were vastly greater in refuge habitats, suggesting a net fitness benefit of association. We conclude that plant-plant associations consistently decrease defense investment in this system by reducing both the frequency of herbivory and the intensity of induced responses, and that inducible responses enable plants to capitalize on such associations in heterogeneous environments. Given the prevalence of associational and induced defenses in plant communities worldwide, our results suggest a potentially general mechanism by which biotic interactions might predictably shape intraspecific variation in plant defense phenotype.

A theoretical foundation for multi-scale regular vegetation patterns.

Self-organized regular vegetation patterns are widespread and thought to mediate ecosystem functions such as productivity and robustness, but the mechanisms underlying their origin and maintenance remain disputed. Particularly controversial are landscapes of overdispersed (evenly spaced) elements, such as North American Mima mounds, Brazilian murundus, South African heuweltjies, and, famously, Namibian fairy circles. Two competing hypotheses are currently debated. On the one hand, models of scale-dependent feedbacks, whereby plants facilitate neighbours while competing with distant individuals, can reproduce various regular patterns identified in satellite imagery. Owing to deep theoretical roots and apparent generality, scale-dependent feedbacks are widely viewed as a unifying and near-universal principle of regular-pattern formation despite scant empirical evidence. On the other hand, many overdispersed vegetation patterns worldwide have been attributed to subterranean ecosystem engineers such as termites, ants, and rodents. Although potentially consistent with territorial competition, this interpretation has been challenged theoretically and empirically and (unlike scale-dependent feedbacks) lacks a unifying dynamical theory, fuelling scepticism about its plausibility and generality. Here we provide a general theoretical foundation for self-organization of social-insect colonies, validated using data from four continents, which demonstrates that intraspecific competition between territorial animals can generate the large-scale hexagonal regularity of these patterns. However, this mechanism is not mutually exclusive with scale-dependent feedbacks. Using Namib Desert fairy circles as a case study, we present field data showing that these landscapes exhibit multi-scale patterning-previously undocumented in this system-that cannot be explained by either mechanism in isolation. These multi-scale patterns and other emergent properties, such as enhanced resistance to and recovery from drought, instead arise from dynamic interactions in our theoretical framework, which couples both mechanisms. The potentially global extent of animal-induced regularity in vegetation-which can modulate other patterning processes in functionally important ways-emphasizes the need to integrate multiple mechanisms of ecological self-organization.

Elephants in the understory: opposing direct and indirect effects of consumption and ecosystem engineering by megaherbivores.

Positive indirect effects of consumers on their resources can stabilize food webs by preventing overexploitation, but the coupling of trophic and non-trophic interactions remains poorly integrated into our understanding of community dynamics. Elephants engineer African savanna ecosystems by toppling trees and breaking branches, and although their negative effects on trees are well documented, their effects on small-statured plants remain poorly understood. Using data on 117 understory plant taxa collected over 7 yr within 36 1-ha experimental plots in a semi-arid Kenyan savanna, we measured the strength and direction of elephant impacts on understory vegetation. We found that elephants had neutral effects on most (83-89%) species, with a similar frequency of positive and negative responses among the remainder. Overall, estimated understory biomass was 5-14% greater in the presence of elephants across a range of rainfall levels. Whereas direct consumption likely accounts for the negative effects, positive effects are presumably indirect. We hypothesized that elephants create associational refuges for understory plants by damaging tree canopies in ways that physically inhibit feeding by other large herbivores. As predicted, understory biomass and species richness beneath elephant-damaged trees were 55% and 21% greater, respectively, than under undamaged trees. Experimentally simulated elephant damage increased understory biomass by 37% and species richness by 49% after 1 yr. Conversely, experimentally removing elephant damaged branches decreased understory biomass by 39% and richness by 30% relative to sham-manipulated trees. Camera-trap surveys revealed that elephant damage reduced the frequency of herbivory by 71%, whereas we detected no significant effect of damage on temperature, light, or soil moisture. We conclude that elephants locally facilitate understory plants by creating refuges from herbivory, which countervails the direct negative effects of consumption and enhances larger-scale biomass and diversity by promoting the persistence of rare and palatable species. Our results offer a counterpoint to concerns about the deleterious impacts of elephant "overpopulation" that should be considered in debates over wildlife management in African protected areas: understory species comprise the bulk of savanna plant biodiversity, and their responses to elephants are buffered by the interplay of opposing consumptive and non-consumptive interactions.

DNA metabarcoding illuminates dietary niche partitioning by African large herbivores.

Niche partitioning facilitates species coexistence in a world of limited resources, thereby enriching biodiversity. For decades, biologists have sought to understand how diverse assemblages of large mammalian herbivores (LMH) partition food resources. Several complementary mechanisms have been identified, including differential consumption of grasses versus nongrasses and spatiotemporal stratification in use of different parts of the same plant. However, the extent to which LMH partition food-plant species is largely unknown because comprehensive species-level identification is prohibitively difficult with traditional methods. We used DNA metabarcoding to quantify diet breadth, composition, and overlap for seven abundant LMH species (six wild, one domestic) in semiarid African savanna. These species ranged from almost-exclusive grazers to almost-exclusive browsers: Grass consumption inferred from mean sequence relative read abundance (RRA) ranged from >99% (plains zebra) to <1% (dik-dik). Grass RRA was highly correlated with isotopic estimates of % grass consumption, indicating that RRA conveys reliable quantitative information about consumption. Dietary overlap was greatest between species that were similar in body size and proportional grass consumption. Nonetheless, diet composition differed between all species-even pairs of grazers matched in size, digestive physiology, and location-and dietary similarity was sometimes greater across grazing and browsing guilds than within them. Such taxonomically fine-grained diet partitioning suggests that coarse trophic categorizations may generate misleading conclusions about competition and coexistence in LMH assemblages, and that LMH diversity may be more tightly linked to plant diversity than is currently recognized.

Ecological feedbacks. Termite mounds can increase the robustness of dryland ecosystems to climatic change.

Self-organized spatial vegetation patterning is widespread and has been described using models of scale-dependent feedback between plants and water on homogeneous substrates. As rainfall decreases, these models yield a characteristic sequence of patterns with increasingly sparse vegetation, followed by sudden collapse to desert. Thus, the final, spot-like pattern may provide early warning for such catastrophic shifts. In many arid ecosystems, however, termite nests impart substrate heterogeneity by altering soil properties, thereby enhancing plant growth. We show that termite-induced heterogeneity interacts with scale-dependent feedbacks to produce vegetation patterns at different spatial grains. Although the coarse-grained patterning resembles that created by scale-dependent feedback alone, it does not indicate imminent desertification. Rather, mound-field landscapes are more robust to aridity, suggesting that termites may help stabilize ecosystems under global change.

Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China.

Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems.

Experimental predator removal causes rapid salt marsh die-off.

Salt marsh habitat loss to vegetation die-offs has accelerated throughout the western Atlantic in the last four decades. Recent studies have suggested that eutrophication, pollution and/or disease may contribute to the loss of marsh habitat. In light of recent evidence that predators are important determinants of marsh health in New England, we performed a total predator exclusion experiment. Here, we provide the first experimental evidence that predator depletion can cause salt marsh die-off by releasing the herbivorous crab Sesarma reticulatum from predator control. Excluding predators from a marsh ecosystem for a single growing season resulted in a >100% increase in herbivory and a >150% increase in unvegetated bare space compared to plots with predators. Our results confirm that marshes in this region face multiple, potentially synergistic threats.

Indirect human impacts reverse centuries of carbon sequestration and salt marsh accretion.

Direct and indirect human impacts on coastal ecosystems have increased over the last several centuries, leading to unprecedented degradation of coastal habitats and loss of ecological services. Here we document a two-century temporal disparity between salt marsh accretion and subsequent loss to indirect human impacts. Field surveys, manipulative experiments and GIS analyses reveal that crab burrowing weakens the marsh peat base and facilitates further burrowing, leading to bank calving, disruption of marsh accretion, and a loss of over two centuries of sequestered carbon from the marsh edge in only three decades. Analogous temporal disparities exist in other systems and are a largely unrecognized obstacle in attaining sustainable ecosystem services in an increasingly human impacted world. In light of the growing threat of indirect impacts worldwide and despite uncertainties in the fate of lost carbon, we suggest that estimates of carbon emissions based only on direct human impacts may significantly underestimate total anthropogenic carbon emissions.

An invasive species facilitates the recovery of salt marsh ecosystems on Cape Cod.

With global increases in human impacts, invasive species have become a major threat to ecosystems worldwide. While they have been traditionally viewed as harmful, invasive species may facilitate the restoration of degraded ecosystems outside their native ranges. In New England (USA) overfishing has depleted salt marsh predators, allowing the herbivorous crab Sesarma reticulatum to denude hundreds of hectares of low marsh. Here, using multiple site surveys and field caging experiments, we show that the subsequent invasion of green crabs, Carcinus maenas, into heavily burrowed marshes partially reverses decades of cordgrass die-off. By consuming Sesarma, eliciting a nonlethal escape response, and evicting Sesarma from burrows, Carcinus reduces Sesarma herbivory and promotes cordgrass recovery. These results suggest that invasive species can contribute to restoring degraded ecosystems and underscores the potential for invasive species to return ecological functions lost to human impacts.

New England salt marsh recovery: opportunistic colonization of an invasive species and its non-consumptive effects.

Predator depletion on Cape Cod (USA) has released the herbivorous crab Sesarmareticulatum from predator control leading to the loss of cordgrass from salt marsh creek banks. After more than three decades of die-off, cordgrass is recovering at heavily damaged sites coincident with the invasion of green crabs (Carcinusmaenas) into intertidal Sesarma burrows. We hypothesized that Carcinus is dependent on Sesarma burrows for refuge from physical and biotic stress in the salt marsh intertidal and reduces Sesarma functional density and herbivory through consumptive and non-consumptive effects, mediated by both visual and olfactory cues. Our results reveal that in the intertidal zone of New England salt marshes, Carcinus are burrow dependent, Carcinus reduce Sesarma functional density and herbivory in die-off areas and Sesarma exhibit a generic avoidance response to large, predatory crustaceans. These results support recent suggestions that invasive Carcinus are playing a role in the recovery of New England salt marshes and assertions that invasive species can play positive roles outside of their native ranges.

Feedbacks underlie the resilience of salt marshes and rapid reversal of consumer-driven die-off.

Understanding ecosystem resilience to human impacts is critical for conservation and restoration. The large-scale die-off of New England salt marshes was triggered by overfishing and resulted from decades of runaway crab grazing. In 2009, however, cordgrass began to recover, decreasing die-off -40% by 2010. We used surveys and experiments to test whether plant-substrate feedbacks underlie marsh resilience. Initially, grazer-generated die-off swept through the cordgrass, creating exposed, stressful peat banks that inhibited plant growth. This desertification cycle broke when banks eroded and peat transitioned into mud with fewer herbivores, less grazing, and lower physical stress. Cordgrass reestablished in these areas through a feedback where it engineered a recovery zone by further ameliorating physical stresses and facilitating additional revegetation. Our results reveal that feedbacks can play a critical role in rapid, reversible ecosystem shifts associated with human impacts, and that the interplay of facilitative and consumer interactions should be incorporated into resilience theory.

Regional ontogeny of New England salt marsh die-off.

Coastal areas are among the world's most productive and highly affected ecosystems. Centuries of human activity on coastlines have led to overexploitation of marine predators, which in turn has led to cascading ecosystem-level effects. Human effects and approaches to mediating them, however, differ regionally due to gradients in biotic and abiotic factors. Salt marsh die-off on Cape Cod, Massachusetts (U.S.A.), triggered by a recreational-fishing-induced trophic cascade that has released herbivorous crabs from predator control, has been ongoing since 1976. Similar salt marsh die-offs have been reported in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay (U.S.A.), but the driving mechanism of these die-offs has not been examined. We used field experiments to assess trophic interactions and historical reconstructions of 24 New England marshes to test the hypotheses that recreational fishing and predator depletion are a regional trigger of salt marsh die-off in New England and that die-offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are more recent than those on Cape Cod. Predator depletion was the general trigger of marsh die-off and explained differences in herbivorous crab abundance and the severity of die-off across regions. Die-offs in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay are following a trajectory similar to die-off on Cape Cod, but are approximately 20 years behind those on Cape Cod. As a result, die-off currently affects 31.2% (SE 2.2) of low-marsh areas in Long Island Sound and Narragansett Bay, less than half the severity of die-off on Cape Cod. Our results contribute to the growing evidence that recreational fishing is an increasing threat to coastal ecosystems and that studying the effects of human activity at regional scales can provide insight into local effects and aid in early detection and potential remediation.